A bankroll token’s price is the value of the pool divided by the number of tokens, and the only thing that changes it is playing at the tables. When a player loses, the stake stays in the pool, and every token is worth a little more. When a player wins, the payout leaves the pool, and every token is worth a little less. Stakers coming in and going out change the size of the pool but not the price, because tokens are created and destroyed at whatever the price is at that moment. Nothing else feeds into it.
Take a crypto games roulette pool worth 50,000 dollars with 50,000 tokens in circulation, so each token is worth one dollar. If players lose a net of 500 dollars over an evening, the pool is worth 50,500, and each token is worth a cent more. If a player then hits a straight up and the pool pays out 500, the pool is back to 50,000, and the token is back to a dollar. Every movement the token ever makes is one of those two steps repeated.
Why does the price fall as well as rise?
The house edge means the pool gains on average, but the average is made of many small gains and a few large losses. Most spins are even money bets that go the house’s way slightly more often than not, and those nudge the price up. A straight-up hit pays 35 to 1 and takes a lump out in one go, and that pulls the price down sharply. A holder who checks after a big hit will see the price below where it was, even on a pool that is winning over the month. The dips are not a sign that the edge has stopped working. They are the shape of how the edge is collected: steadily, with occasional large payouts in the other direction.
The cap on the largest single win is what keeps those dips bounded. A pool that limits any one payout to one per cent of its value can be hit several times in a night and still close ahead. A loser cap means a rougher token.
Why do deposits and withdrawals not move it?
A new staker who deposits receives tokens at the current price, so the pool gains coins and tokens in the same proportion, and the ratio between them is unchanged. A staker who withdraws returns tokens and takes coins at the current price, and again the ratio holds. If deposits could move the price, the pool would be a trading venue rather than a bankroll. Because the price only reflects the pool, the only way to profit from holding the token is for players to lose.
A larger pool does change one thing. The cap on a single win is a share of the pool, so more coins behind it mean each hit moves the price less.
What does the price tell you?
Read the token as a running total of the house’s results per share. Over a short stretch, it can sit below where it started, because a handful of hits can outweigh a week of small gains. Over a long stretch, it tracks the edge, because the small gains never stop and the hits, however large, are capped. When it rises, players lose more than they win. When it fell, they won more than they lost. The token cannot say anything else.
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